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Premier Li Keqiang and Finance Mininster Lou Jiwei have reiterated their belief in the growth expectations for 2014 of 7.5%.

7.5% was the expectiation of many economists for the Chinese export data released over the weekend on March 8th. The actual number is down -18.1%. That is a 25.6% reversal from expectations. These numbers were interesting in contrast to February 2013. Imports dropped 15.2% and exports rocketed up 21.8% in February of 2013. For the combined first two months of 2013, exports grew 23.6% and imports rose 5%. In the absence of information, the 18.1% drop in 2014 for exports and the 15.2% decline in imports in 2013 could be anomalies or a trend we will have to become accustomed to.

Close attention should be paid to the March 2014 year over year Customs data.

The March 2013 export figures showed double digit growth in both exports and imports, according to the General Administration of Customs data.

The Reuters Poll for March 2013 had expectations for export growth to be 10.5%, the actual was 10%. Imports into China were reported to exceed exports, indicating an increase in consumer demand, which would fuel domestic spending and help buoy the Chinese economy from any downturns. The March Data was hailed as a possible turning point for demand and put a glow on the economic outlook.

The State Information Center, a government think tank group is expecting 2.4% CPI growth and 1.5% PPI increases year-on-year for the first quarter. SIC also expects exports to grow 8.1% and imports 8.5% year-over-year for the first quarter. Hence, this would indicate a regression to the means. For the balance of 2014 exports would have to average back to their normal or mean technical trend. – By Julien David

Exports, General Administration of Customs, Growth, Headline, Premier Li, SIC